Civic politics junkies have been waiting to see whether the NPA would get into the ugly topic of the Olympic village, a tricky one for them as the party risks getting mud on its own face. As you’ll recall, the uproar over the village’s financial mess three years ago dominated the election campaign.
Today, Suzanne Anton decided to call for an accounting on the village’s finances, which I guess she and her party are hoping will get voters thinking about the more recent Vision Vancouver decisions on the village (keep the social housing, put the whole project into receivership, etc.) rather than the earlier NPA ones (commit to building a village with a private developer, accepting a bid based on the highest price rather than most experienced builder, lending money to the private developer when other financing started to fall apart).
But, oddly, apparently the city manager just issued a memo to all councillors, including Suzanne, that provides an update on many of the numbers Suzanne was asking for.
Here it is, for those wondering what’s happening. (Personally, I’d like to know how much of the mortgage is left and what we’re paying per month on it. We got those numbers a few months ago, but it would be nice to see them updated. Here is a link to the info that was presented in the spring.)
Suzanne’s news release is below.
Sent: Tuesday, October 04, 2011 10:11 PM
To: Direct to Mayor and Council – DL
Cc: Honrado, Lara; Aujla, Bill; McLellan, David; Prosken, Brenda; Ballem, Penny; Welman, Mairi; Stewart, Wendy; Impey, Patrice; Flanigan, Michael; Coulson, Marg
Subject: Council Update on SEFC Project
Urban Fare: scheduled to open in June 2012 but they are attempting to open in May 2012
Three (3) other commercial spaces are still available ; lease negotiations for two (2) of these spaces are anticipated by the Receiver to be finalized shortly
“The Olympic Village at Southeast False Creek has been an ongoing financial concern for Vancouver residents,” says Anton. “And Mayor Robertson promised during the last election to be open and transparent on this. They need to report on the village by November 1.”
A receiver was appointed to oversee the development in November 2010. Anton says the last financial reporting by the city was in April 2011. She believes a report would be of great interest to voters at this point.
Anton has submitted a motion requesting staff provide a complete reporting on the Olympic Village project by 1 November 2011 including: sales month to month, the overall financial position of the project, and the social housing occupancy, including numbers of market/ non-market tenants, and numbers of police, fire and teacher occupants as directed by council motion of April 2010.
110 responses so far ↓
1 Roger Kemble // Oct 12, 2011 at 2:02 pm
Well before all the tupenny experts (bikes/TX) start ripping into this let me put them straight: Olympic village is a resounding success.
Yes, the sustainable, green nonsense is off the wall but it is no different to all traditionally, well constructed buildings: there is no such thing as sustainability unless you are in the marketing game. I wont go into the details until the usual suspects start mouthing off.
I have not been in any of the suites but I hear they are pretty small for the price. Money is the issue that will bring our way of life down: fractional reserve ponzi is getting up everyone nose and until we deal with it our standard of living will continue to decline and the cost of shelter will continue to climb: again I’ll await the zombie experts’ sound off.
Good social housing mix: if Geller wants to whine about his empty suited pals living next to Insite’s clients then I remind him of FCS 1975+ which is another resounding housing success.
The integrated urban design in magnificent: narrow streets, contained little places, colour, treatment of the sea wall.
I’d try to like Vancouver if I could afford to live there!
2 Jordan // Oct 12, 2011 at 2:41 pm
I am very tired of NPA attack adds and I will now not be voting for them. I am also tired of Anton trying to be on both sides of every issue.
As a former NPA supporter I can’t understand why they couldn’t find anyone else and why they filled up the slates with ‘people off the street’ just to fill spots
3 Joe Just Joe // Oct 12, 2011 at 2:42 pm
The urban planners might rate it a success, unfortunately the market has deemed it less then impressive and I doubt you’ll see to many people copying it locally anytime soon.
Every time you mention the fractional reserve ponzi I picture a bunch of economics drop outs at a table discussing the merits of gold )and posting comments at the globe and mail) only to discover none of you have any gold and that the coffee shop wouldn’t accept it anyways to pay the bill.
Surprised Frances hasn’t done a story on it, but it appears that the OV losses are now listed at $48M, a touch less then the Billion dollars a councillor or two hinted at last election.
4 Kate // Oct 12, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Given the role the village played, or was played by Gregor, in the last election, I have no problem that it is coming back in this election.
Last time, Mayor Moonbeam used it for a political drive-by so fairs-fair that it comes up this time to bite his greenie butt.
5 jesse // Oct 12, 2011 at 2:48 pm
So Frances, how much money has the City recouped thus far?
In the interest of reporting the facts, is there a *financial* update on this project, including square footage left to be sold, previous sales prices net sales costs, and the remaining loan outstanding? It would be useful to get another baseline. In the interest of great interests.
6 jesse // Oct 12, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Also it would be good to know what income the City is making, net any refinancing costs of course, on units rented or otherwise leased. Just want to be sure all the i’s are crossed and the t’s dotted when looking at net taxpayer losses, even if it’s part of its affordable housing strategy.
7 Bill // Oct 12, 2011 at 3:18 pm
@Roger Kemble #1
“Olympic village is a resounding success.”
If a project that the City lost $100++ million on is your idea of a resounding success then it should come as no surprise that you cannot afford to live in Vancouver.
8 Michael Geller // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Frances, if all the information is there, as you so cheekily point out, perhaps you will answer the following 10 questions for me, and everyone else who isn’t quite so pleased with the manner in which this project has been handled over the past 3 years:
1. How much has each of the’ social housing’ units cost the city to date?
2. Is it true that many of the people in the social housing units are very unhappy with their ‘units, especially their monthly energy costs, and are worried that they may have to move out unless the city provides further subsidies?
3. How much rent is the city collecting for these units, and how much is it losing each month? What is the capitalized value of these losses?
4. According to the staff report, how much money would the city have made if these units had been sold as condominiums?
5. How many firefighters have moved into the ‘social housing’ units that were converted to market rental units (against the advice of most housing experts)? Is it true that the answer is none?
6. How many of these units are currently vacant? Given the rental housing crisis in Vancouver, why are so many of these units still empty? What are the monthly holding costs on unrented units? What is the average monthly rent being charged?
7. How much money has the city spent on deficiencies and repairs since taking over the project? How much remains to be spent?
8. How much has the city spent on receivers, lawyers, marketing costs and other consultants over the past 3 years?
9. When does the receiver and marketing team estimate that the project will sell out? What are the monthly holding costs on the unsold units?
10. How much money is the city projected to lose on the sale of the market condominium units?
When one adds up the losses to date on the ‘social housing’ units, the ‘aspirational’ loss on the balance of the outstanding land payment of approximately $175 million, the estimated losses on the market condominium units, the monies paid out to receivers, etc. (less the estimated recovery from the developer’s security), what are the total estimated losses resulting from the city’s decsion to put the Olympic Village developer into receivership?
9 Frances Bula // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:20 pm
@Michael. Perhaps you should submit these questions to the NPA and Suzanne. They didn’t ask for this information.
As you very well know, many of these questions have been thrashed out over the past several months.
Several are unanswerable at this point. It will depend on how the market goes and how many deficiencies still have to be fixed up.
Some are rhetorical — you know very well that the Courier has reported several times on tenants being unhappy about their energy costs.
Some are pointless — what does it matter how many firefighters moved in, since they weren’t getting a break on their rent anyway?
Some were answered. The memo does give a count on how many units are vacant.
Just for fun: I would like your estimate of what all the condos could have been sold for realistically, given the state of the market and the bad smell emanating from the village, due to its financial problems. It would be great to see a complete breakdown of what you think each and every unit could have been sold for and how much the city would have lost on that (because there’s no way, I think even you agree, that they would have recouped all the money) and how that compares to what you think they are losing by going the route they chose.
10 Frances Bula // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:22 pm
@Jesse. There was a financial update several months ago. Remember the hoopla when city manager Penny Ballem gave the update and we in the media all ended up totally confused about whether the losses included getting no money for the land? That had an update on what the city had received to that point from condo sales, along with the amount of the loan outstanding. When I have time, I’ll dig it out.
11 mezzanine // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:51 pm
I was surprised about the lack of pick-up of this back in June/July 2011:
On Monday Moody’s said recent efforts by the city to reduce its risk exposure to revenues from the sale of condominiums had helped the rating service upgrade Vancouver’s Aaa rating from negative to stable.
…
The improved rating is a good sign for the city, which was forced to exercise loan guarantees it gave to Millennium Developments, forcing the Southeast False Creek project into “voluntary receivership.” In doing so, taxpayers were technically left on the hook for the entire development at a time when the real estate market went into a slump as a result of the worldwide economic downturn.
But Moody’s said the city’s effort to sell the remaining condos at a decent price helped reduce the risk to taxpayers.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+credit+rating+raised+Moody+Investors+Service/5012994/story.html#ixzz1acOAdulM
If I had to point fingers, i would look at the tendering process and question weather enough due diligence was done to control risk to the CoV. Why was millenium (a smaller company that had to get riskier funding) given the contract and not wall or concord?
Compare the OV to richmond, where they had a nice outcome from civic involvement with the olympic oval project.
12 Frances Bula // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:51 pm
@Jesse. Here it is.
http://vancouver.ca/publications/pdf/SEFCPresentationApril82011.pdf
13 Bill Lee // Oct 12, 2011 at 6:03 pm
Hmm
“Frances Bula // Oct 12, 2011 at 5:20 pm
@Michael Geller. Perhaps you should submit these questions to the NPA and Suzanne. They didn’t ask for this information…”
Seems, (vague time stamps there) that Geller put out his stalking straw horse already on CityCaucus.calm already about an hour before.
14 spartikus // Oct 12, 2011 at 6:24 pm
Why was millenium (a smaller company that had to get riskier funding) given the contract and not wall or concord?
Especially since Millenium came in 3rd in the first competition. Someone – who has never been identified – overturned that result and ordered the competition run again with…surprise…new criteria.
Which Millenium came in first.
15 George // Oct 12, 2011 at 6:43 pm
I am putting this question out to anyone with expertise in this particular area…
1.Will there be any damage to suites that have been left standing empty for so long, any concerns of mold.
2.If it is true that we are expecting the coldest winter in years, does this mean that taxpayers will be paying for the heating of the empty suites so pipes don’t freeze?
16 jesse // Oct 12, 2011 at 7:38 pm
@Frances, thanks for this.
I think Anton has a good point to ask for an updated financial situation report. Honestly it seems like something that, given the horrible mess the City dug itself over the past 10 or so years, it’s something on which the City owes its electorate ongoing clarity going forward. I’m sure clarity is something Ballem demands of her team, and indeed one the electorate demanded in the past election given the near-elimination of the NPA from chamber, so I hope she understands how electorate, from time to time, demand the same ongoing clarity from her.
It should be pretty simple: take the template from some of the initial OV assessment reports, then do what they call a “delta” at MBA school, and we can all see the situation for what it is.
I think Michael Geller is asking good questions, but Anton asked for a simple financial report. If the report is not simple — that is, unclear or not easily comparable to past ones — that is not much more than outright disingenuous. Geller is highlighting some of the usual tricks used to hide future costs, but I would expect a financial report can clearly account for these for the benefit of the analysts.
I’m more than sure Ms. Ballem is up to the task. There are a few weeks in hand to prepare it.
17 not buying it // Oct 12, 2011 at 7:45 pm
For someone who is running on ‘accountability,’ you’d think Suzanne Anton would admit that picking a wall street hedge fund to finance a massive real estate project, and then have the city backstop the loan, all in secret, was a colossal mistake.
After all, it was Suzanne and the NPA who invited that wall street hedge fund into the financing agreement, and had no plan for when things went wrong.
If only the village had stiltwalkers…
18 jesse // Oct 12, 2011 at 7:53 pm
“i would look at the tendering process and question weather enough due diligence was done to control risk to the CoV.”
There are a few issues, but I think we have a reasonable “state of the union” baseline from after the loan was rolled onto the City’s books, in part due to Frances’ reports. Since then the City is attempting to recover proceeds from Millennium, by sale of the OV asset net sales fees, and by longer-term amortization through leasing and rentals. There are simple ways of properly accounting for these salvage efforts, giving a reasonably sound apples-to-apples understanding of how much of the original loan is outstanding.
Dealing with the original tendering process is another issue but that isn’t the one Anton is after, she’s trying to see how well the City has done at recouping monies for its taxpayers compared to an established baseline and one that it has been rather cagey at answering. Perhaps someone was silly enough to provide a better-than-expected loss estimate a bit too quickly and the real number is higher.
19 Bill McCreery // Oct 12, 2011 at 8:04 pm
@ Michael 8.
“5. How many firefighters have moved into the ‘social housing’ units that were converted to market rental units… ?”
I have it from someone in a position to know that the answer is zero. Likewise for the VPD and BC ambulance members. The comment was – for the rents at the OV they can buy a home in the burbs, so why rent?
And, I agree, and have said previously, when all the direct and indirect costs are accounted for the total losses will be well over the conventional wisdom estimate of $225,000,000.
@ George 15.
1. No if there are no leaks or other sources of moisture and proper maintenance is done, including maintaining adequate in-suite temperatures during cold weather.
2. 1. above answers your 2.
20 George // Oct 12, 2011 at 9:52 pm
Thanks Bill McC
I think that was what I was trying to articulate..if there are no leaks etc, but are these suites being maintained in a timely manor..I’ve often wondered if these inspections were being cut back as a cost saving measure..thus unnoticed leaks etc.
21 Michael Geller // Oct 12, 2011 at 11:04 pm
Frances, had the city worked with Millennium, and supported a collaborative marketing program immediately after the Olympics, rather than frustrate their efforts, and eventually put them in receivership, the outcome would have been very, very different.
Bob Rennie prepared a realistic pricing schedule to get the marketing program underway,and create some momentum, but I am told the city rejected it.
Most of the respected real estate lawyers and industry professionals I have spoken to still question why the city put Millennium into receivership, given that the project was completed. This was a highly unusual thing to do.
And to those who question why Millennium was chosen in the first place, it’s because it offered a lot more money than the others, and had a very good track record, and had Bob Rennie on their team, and very well respected architects, and so on. The developer’s family had built very large projects in the past.
I would add that the city rejected Millennium’s bid for the Woodwards project despite offering more money, and had it rejected them again, many of us would have questioned why the property was going to Wall or Concord.
Furthermore, had the 2008 recession not come along, Millennium may well have done quite well.
As for the choice of lender, Millennium could not get financing from a Canadian bank because the city would not sell them the land. That’s right. As noted many times before on this site, the city’s legal department insisted that the city retain title until after the Olympics. This was done so that the city could move in and take over the project, in the event that Millennium did not appear to be able to complete in time.
How many of you could get financing from a bank to build a house on somebody else’s property, on the understanding that the person owning the property could come in and take over the project if it deemed you might not finish in time.
I personally believe that Millennium and it’s advisors underestimated the significance of this legal arrangement, and for that they can be faulted. I also thought they offered too much money for the land, but Millennium and Bob Rennie were convinced it was a good deal. Indeed, Rennie told a UDI audience in May, following the bid, that it would one day be seen as “the deal of the century”.
I do not think the city can be faulted for accepting their bid. On the contrary, it would have been faulted for accepting a lower bid from Wall or Concord, noting that at the end of the day, the developer had to comply with city zoning, design guidelines, etc. etc.
As for whether the city should be faulted for guaranteeing that the housing would be finished in time for the Olympics, I would ask what you would have done in the same situation.
As Malcolm Gladwell wrote in one of his books, when a plane crashes it is not usually due to one thing…it’s due to a succession of small events that lead to a catastrophe. That’s what happened here.
However, in my opinion, while the new Council inherited a mess, it exacerbated the situation. It could have reduced its losses by selling the social housing, by not ‘bad-mouthing’ the project and turning it into a political football, and by working more collaboratively with Millennium.
I knew this project was in serious trouble when I saw the sign on the sales office door saying don’t park on the street since the city may tow your car. It was just a matter of time before things would get much worse.
22 Victor // Oct 12, 2011 at 11:40 pm
And it is doomed when someone is interested in the buildings that sit empty, yet no one will show them to any applicants- they can quite easily qualify them.
They could populate the area with those keen to enjoy the view and amenities. Are we holding our breath for higher prices. Spare us the pain please. Let’s get on with it!
23 mezzanine // Oct 13, 2011 at 2:05 am
I knew this project was in serious trouble when I saw the sign on the sales office door saying don’t park on the street since the city may tow your car. It was just a matter of time before things would get much worse.
So you did think the project was in trouble in 2009 when the city had to borrow ~ $400 million to cover the fortress bailout?
I’m no developer, but vancouver and richmond looked into similar crystal balls when they planned their efforts. Richmond actually had to rush to assemble a plan as the rink was moved from SFU to richmond in the late stages. granted, the development potential for either site was different, but vancouver and richmond had dramatically different near-term outcomes.
24 Roger Kemble // Oct 13, 2011 at 2:54 am
Furthermore, had the 2008 recession not come along, Millennium may well have done quite well.
Well, thanqu for that gratuitous remark Michael G @ #21
Of course the negative-istas are sounding off: an election is in the works. Have you noticed how monolithic their talk?
How much has Sam’s Eco-charter boondoggle cost? We’ll never know because Eco has become hallowed ground and is, in reality, a bull-shit-cash-cow for someone.
As for financing: this has become a political harangue: all the usual subjects of course. Everyone is speculating doomsday. No one knows the final shake out.
What we do know is that OV is a shining legacy, contrasting the . . . errrrr . . . so beloved financially successful forest of gray stumps surrounded by private property.
BTW wasn’t this started by the nay sayers.
This is the first multi-complex in Vancouver to provide public amenity. But that is lost on our bean counters.
Please wait for the final accounting before you play for your political brownie points . . .
25 Roger Kemble // Oct 13, 2011 at 3:40 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8zmkzshUvE
26 spartikus // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:13 am
Reposted:
-France Bula/Jeff Lee, VSun, April 5 2006
-Pete McMartin, VSun, April 6, 2006
27 spartikus // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:16 am
Dealing with the original tendering process is another issue but that isn’t the one Anton is after
Of course not. Why shine a spotlight on potential political interference in the tendering process by the party she’s running for.
28 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:36 am
“Why shine a spotlight on potential political interference in the tendering process”
Stick to the issue: can we get a revised financial update of the salvage efforts? This is a simple request and it’s looking mighty confusing right now. That’s not good for taxpayers or for optics of incumbents’ good faith.
29 not buying it // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:42 am
It’s clear that all those people willing to buy condos right beside those “Ds and Es” really drives Michael crazy
30 Paul T. // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:46 am
@ Jordan #2…
This is starting to get offensive and I think the MSM is only helping to continue this myth that somehow the NPA runs attacks ads.
Gregor Robertson and Vision Vancouver are the party in power in the City of Vancouver. They have had 3 years as leaders. As the opposing party the NPA must take a critical look at what Gregor and company has done in those three years.
Clearly they feel the city is being guided in the wrong direction. According to the latest poll, 37% of the population STRONGLY disagree with Gregor’s leadership.
Just because an ad is critical of the leadership of someone does NOT make it an attack ad. I would be more surprised if the NPA were NOT running ads critical of Vision Vancouver.
What I do find funny is Vision Vancouver running ads that are critical of Suzanne Anton. She’s not the mayor. Why does Vision refuse to run positive ads based on their record over the past 3 years? Is it because they know they’ve been an embarrassment? Are they ashamed of their record?
31 mezzanine // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:58 am
Stick to the issue: can we get a revised financial update of the salvage efforts? This is a simple request and it’s looking mighty confusing right now. That’s not good for taxpayers or for optics of incumbents’ good faith.
FWIW, this is from the actual post from Moody’s.
The outlook change is prompted by Moody’s view of the city’s declining risk exposure to the expected revenues from sales of condominium units at the Olympic Village for the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, which the city helped to finance. The city’s debt levels, which had increased significantly with the financing related to the Olympic Village development, have stabilized and reduced over the past six months and are expected to continue to decline. Net direct and indirect debt declined to roughly 98% of operating revenues at December 31, 2010 from 107% in at December 31, 2009.
http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Revises-Outlook-on-the-City-of-Vancouvers-Aaa-Debt–PR_221209
[shrugs] the market votes with its feet.
[shrugs] of course, it also depends on how much you trust moody’s.
I feel a comment from roger kemble coming on….
32 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 9:45 am
“this is from the actual post from Moody’s.”
Moody’s is looking for long-term default risk, and on that front it is exceedingly rare for a Canadian city to default on its debt. Even if Vancouver sold units off for, say, a net $500MM loan loss it likely wouldn’t impair the finances in the long run: the City would increase taxes to pay it off. My take is that Moody’s is commenting that the salvage efforts have been somewhat successful and shows the City isn’t on a one-way track to impaired credit purgatory.
What’s interesting is how much the City will lose, if anything, on the OV. The difference between, say, a $100MM loss and a $200MM loss is important to mere mortals like me: it is a test of the ability of officials to communicate with its electorate in a “transparent” way.
I’m seeing a few peas pushed around the plate, is all, and hundreds of millions of buckaroonies kinda makes me wax poetic about what else could be done with such monies.
33 Roger Kemble // Oct 13, 2011 at 10:08 am
Mezz @ # 31
No more comments on this thread . . . except to tell Geller to stop shilling for developers who have made a big enough mess @ FCN, NEFC etc., and if he needs the dough that badly go get a job feeding the Chick-a-dees!
Jesse @ #32
“What’s interesting is how much the City will lose, if anything . . . At this time Jesse you have no idea so stop whinging, you’ll give yourself a tooth ache.
34 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 10:24 am
“you have no idea”
That’s kind of the point, Rog.
35 Mira // Oct 13, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Objection your Honor!
Frances #9
What is this?
A trial?
You are acting like the lawyer for the State of Vision, asking for a redirect from Michael #8.
Can you spot the Elephant in the Courthouse?
LOL!
I do believe that you would make a great advocate for justice/ or the truth whichever comes first…
36 Frances Bula // Oct 13, 2011 at 2:10 pm
@Mira. But don’t you think it would be interesting to see what Michael’s calculations would be on the losses if everything got sold, as he’s recommended, versus the losses the city is likely to incur by hanging on to the units, hoping to recoup the money through rents or future sales?
I assume by his silence that he’s working that out as we speak. I know he likes these kinds of challenges. Those would be great numbers to have.
37 bc bud // Oct 13, 2011 at 2:39 pm
@ Paul T #30
“What I do find funny is Vision Vancouver running ads that are critical of Suzanne Anton. ”
absolutely, Vision will raise the spectre of Susan Anton and the NPA, reminding voters of the last two conflict-ridden NPA administrations that imploded and ended in total disaster, a salient reminder given reports of dissension and in-fighting afflicting the current slate of NPA Council candidates … a return to the bad old days of Kim Capri and Lorne Mayencourt tag-teaming down Denman to harass panhandlers, let the voters decide, once the facts about ALL the parties are presented.
38 Michael Geller // Oct 13, 2011 at 2:58 pm
With the assistance of knowledgeable real estate professionals, I will attempt to prepare a financial analysis which compares what the city is going to lose under the current scenario, with what the city would have lost had it sold the social housing units at cost plus a nominal mark-up, as I suggested, and strata-titled and sold the 119 rental units as I suggested.
To do so accurately, it would be helpful if the City/Receiver would provide to me, and Vancouver taxpayers, an updated financial report which sets out the up to date costs of the social housing/coop units, the market condominiums, and the 119 market rental units.
While you are right Frances, I don’t need answers to my rhetorical questions, it would be helpful to know just how much has been paid to the receiver, lawyers, marketing team, and other consultants, since many of these costs would not have been incurred under my scenario.
39 Michelle // Oct 13, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Michael #38
“it would be helpful to know just how much has been paid to the receiver, lawyers, marketing team, and other consultants”
Exactly!
But wouldn’t that cut into Vision Vancouver, Robertson and Penny Ballem’s strategy of smoke and mirrors?
Exactly!
A change in government and a reliable and responsible city administration with jobs awarded based on merit and not based on cronyism is a MUST!
40 Max // Oct 13, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Would it not be more feasible to rent out a portion of these units rather than hanging onto them – having them sit empty, prior to whenever they are put up for sale?
I also understand that there are some social housing units that are still empty. Why is this ? We have many people in this city needing housing.
Either way, the taxpayers are losing money on empty units on a monthly basis. I would love to know what that figure is to-date.
And lets face it – the hghly negative messaging both the Mayor and Vision engaged in, in order to ‘gain politcal points’, did not help in the marketing of this project at all.
If you are looking to purchase a property and the Mayor of the City publically decounces it as a complete mess, would you say here, take my cheque – or go elsewhere.
41 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 4:03 pm
“the hghly negative messaging”
LOL you mean the politically feasible path and the one that recoups the most money might be different? Say it ain’t so.
I thought the best way of recouping maximum monies for the City would have been to sell the units for 20% below market in one fell swoop. But that would have pissed off everyone else trying to hawk properties at the same time. But hey, getting money back isn’t popular!
42 Bobbie Bees // Oct 13, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Well, Owelympic Village can’t be all that bad. There are bicycles riding around in there. I’ve seen them.
43 A Dave // Oct 13, 2011 at 5:24 pm
“that compares what the city is going to lose under the current scenario, with what the city would have lost had it sold the social housing units at cost plus a nominal mark-up, as I suggested”
Presumably, Michael, you will then subtract the future cost to taxpayers for building new social housing units to replace those ones you lost, the cost of the land for the units, plus the yearly costs in policing, health care, shelters, the strain on BC Housing, plus the misery of having several hundred people homeless for what, another 5-10 more years?
While I’m sure we all agree the cost of this housing was exorbitant, when all is said and done, you’re probably looking at a near wash by the time your replacement housing gets built somewhere else.
44 brilliant // Oct 13, 2011 at 5:39 pm
@ bc bud
Yeah cause the drugged out surly street trash adds so much to this city’s livability. Mayencourt was never in civic politics anyway, but don’t let that get in the way of your rant.
45 A Dave // Oct 13, 2011 at 5:40 pm
“But wouldn’t that cut into Vision Vancouver, Robertson and Penny Ballem’s strategy of smoke and mirrors?
Exactly!
A change in government and a reliable and responsible city administration with jobs awarded based on merit and not based on cronyism is a MUST!”
Michelle, do you mean “reliable and responsible” like when Judy Rodgers and the NPA Council hushed up the City’s CFO, Estelle Lo, when she tried to raise concerns about the financing of the OV, and Millenium’s request to be fronted 10′s of millions of dollars to bail them out 6 months BEFORE the financial meltdown?
When the City’s financial expert raises the red flag, the responsible course of action is not to hush her up and force her out of a job, then bully ahead by digging an ever deeper financial sink hole.
46 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 6:20 pm
BTW here is the report from September 2010, for reference: http://vancouver.ca/mediaroom/news/pdf/SEFC-technicalbriefing-sept302010.pdf
47 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 7:12 pm
So I took the liberty of guesstimating some updated figures based on the information we have from April and Ballem’s latest informational. Here’s what I’ve surmised on cursory pass:
City had a $520MM loan outstanding as of November 2010 ignoring the land.
City sold about 164 units since then, leaving about 310 left to sell.
City expects to recover $56-70MM from seized assets.
That leaves $456MM loan to be repaid minus any net proceeds from market housing sales.
If we assume 600psf and average 1000sqft sale that means $98.4MM revenue before commissions and other sales fees. Assume 3% on this (probably way low) and we’re at $95.4MM
That leaves a $361MM loan.
I am not including any operating and carrying costs. This is just principal recovery efforts only.
We can estimate total losses on the loan based on average future price sold per square foot of unsold units. This ignores rental housing, commercial unit, and social housing sales. I didn’t find any mention of the cooperative so haven’t included it.
Price psf | loss ($Millions)
$700.00 | 132
$600.00 | 165
$500.00 | 198
$400.00 | 230
So assuming the remainder of the sales go as well as the first salvo earlier this year with similar sales prices, we’re looking at $165MM write off. If you think prices need to drop to move the remaining units off the books, we’re getting upwards of $200MM write off.
The rental units and other units will remain on the City’s books and look to be operating near breakeven, plus or minus. That isn’t necessarily a good thing but from a credit rating point of view I don’t think there’s much impairment.
The land is something else entirely, the City in effect shares this with private owners now so its loss on the books will be partial. We can guess here, probably 75% haircut or about $150MM from initial book, but the issue here is the land value may have been valued inappropriately. It certainly has some value, so maybe we write another $100MM off.
Then the City’s ongoing expenses and lost tax revenues dealing with this project. I don’t know how much this will be but probably tack on another $10-20MM or something like that.
This is a quick analysis, trying to compare apples-to-apples from a known baseline just over a year ago.
48 jesse // Oct 13, 2011 at 7:34 pm
I should mention that the NOI from the remaining units can be seen as being used to carry the residual loan. Depending upon the loan term, that’s manageable but there’s duration risk in the long run with this arrangement and the loan will need to eventually be amortized. I would count on a healthy fraction of the future cash flows servicing the loan being negative.
I’ll put total losses of negative cash flow present value at around $100MM, and loss on land about the same.
I’ll say $200M total loss.
49 spartikus // Oct 13, 2011 at 8:01 pm
When the City’s financial expert raises the red flag, the responsible course of action is not to hush her up and force her out of a job, then bully ahead by digging an ever deeper financial sink hole.
This line of thinking, I’m told, is not sticking to the issues.
50 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 3:28 am
OCCUPY VANCOUVER
VAG October 15, Saturday 1000 hrs
51 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 3:48 am
@ Jesse #48
“I’ll say $200M total loss.” Call be naive as hell but . . . I see the plaza, the chick-a-dees, the sea wall garden as worth the price.
Considering the world financial disaster OV came out well . . . phew. Larry’s name sake bit the dust: his memory is but a mud hole in the ground.
It shows up good urban design as a model to follow.
52 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 5:42 am
On and PS @ Jesse #48
Add to the list of assets in perpetuity:
Salt hall . . .
Revenue generating rentals . . .
Social housing . . .
Convenience of on-site amenities: stores, rec.centre etc. . . .
I’d say what we have here is a bunch, Geller, Bula, Max(hi-heels) et. al., filling empty lives with a mash of innuendo.
53 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 6:01 am
@ Jesse
PPS Good for you: crunching the numbers so promptly.
You’re obviously in the know!
Thanqxz . . .
54 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 10:37 am
Rodger Kemble@# 50
Will the Mayor and Chief Chu honor the Falon Gong bylaw or is that unjust bylaw just just going to be shoved under the carpet for certain groups ..
That is the question I want answered…by calling everyone to come on down, you are becoming part of the same problem, just as when Mayor Gregor called everyone down to the hockey game…think about it..
If one tent or structure goes up without a proper permit…then there needs to be some explaining to done..and a reversal of that bylaw for the peaceful Falon Gong demonstrators…we have exactly the same situation brewing here..
55 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 10:49 am
I will be OCCUPYING NANAIMO tomorrow 1100 hrs Diane Krall Plaza.
I will be protesting Bank of Canada’s money as debt, fractional reserve banking paralleling OWS.
Yeah Falon Gong: give ‘em a break.
All these ass-holes kicking VV in the shins have no idea what NPA is: I lived with it for almost forty years.
56 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 11:14 am
Rodger Kemble @#55
Sorry Rodger, could you clarify for me what has the NPA got to do with the Falon Gong issue or the OccupyVancouver..I am not a member of the NPA so your comment is confusing..it makes no sense..
I fear your message is getting lost in the hate you have against a political party which is not what this conversation is about…we are talking about laws and oppression..VV bowed to the oppressive Chinese government and created a bylaw that restricts the rights of the Falun Gong to peacefully protest, but is allowing Occupy Vancouver to do exactly the same thing that they are denying these peaceful protesters…what I am discussing is hypocrisy…you seem to be beating a party drum… ignoring the obvious..
57 Roger Kemble // Oct 14, 2011 at 11:18 am
You are the one off topic. Nobody hates anybody . . . get lost!
58 Bill // Oct 14, 2011 at 11:50 am
@Roger Kemble
Don’t forget to wear your aluminum foil hat tomorrow. You can never be too careful.
59 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 11:51 am
Rodger 57
Excuse me Rodger but I believe that is the right of the OWNER OF THIS BLOG..not you.
I thought the point of Occupy Vancouver was that everyone has a voice…you have in one sentence exposed the hypocrisy…which was exactly my point…one group is better than another in your opinion…as stated in your own words…
A denier of my freedom of speech…interesting..
I was trying to engage in a conversation and you turned it into an opportunity to bully… so much for peaceful protest..I think I am right on topic…
In Vancouver, Vision Vancouver has created an unfair bylaw…will they give certain members of certain parties a free pass to break this law…totally on topic..you just don’t want the topic brought to the table..but the fact remains..it still exists…
60 Max // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:03 pm
@jesse #41:
No, I mean specific statements Robertson made to various press describing the village itself.
Marketing 101 – do not speak negatively about the project.
Rather than promoting the Village for all it was worth, he bad mouthed it in the press time over.
61 spartikus // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:03 pm
If one tent or structure goes up without a proper permit…
Indeed! In fact, I have it on good authority there are already tents up downtown….
…oh…wait…
…I’m thinking of the iPhone 4S lineup.
Never mind!
62 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Rodger Kemble @ 50 & 55…
might I point out it was you in both of your comments, that redirected the topic…
63 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Spartikus
Much different than the structures that are going up for this event… on their website they are also talking about camping in Stanly Park when the contract for filming Superman at the VAG has to be honored…film industry union jobs aren’t they?
Are you at work on my taxpayer dime Sparty? or is this your lunch hour?
64 spartikus // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:30 pm
It was an attempt to lighten the mood, George.
Alas.
65 George // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Spartikus…
Do you use a Mac or PC for your work (blog)..
Do you have an Iphone or Ipod?? or just a regular old cell phone?
Your comments lose credibility here, based on that one comment…
I have a laptop, but no cell phone, no ipod, no game devices…your point is perhaps not the best example.
66 Paul T. // Oct 14, 2011 at 1:38 pm
hehehe, I saw the humour in it Sparti. Also loved your retweet from the Fake Vancouver PD.
However, the point here is that if this DOES turn violent there will be NOTHING funny about it. Also, the protesters I’m sure find nothing funny about the topic they are protesting.
Let’s be clear, emotions will be running high. A little respect for each other will go a long way.
I just hope we don’t break out in another riot. I’m still trying to get the tear-gas smell out of my apartment.
I’m happy the mayor has finally come out (after much prodding by Suzanne Anton) with a statement warning trouble makers that they won`t be welcome.
67 Bill McCreery // Oct 14, 2011 at 2:41 pm
@ Jesse 48.
You say: “I’ll say $200M total loss.”
I say: “when all the direct and indirect costs are accounted for the total losses will be well over the conventional wisdom estimate of ($225,000,000).”
In fact I did a calculation based on what information that was available (not enough) last spring that totalled a loss of ($280,000,000). That figure included the land write-off Gregor wants to ignore and an allowance for reciever and legal fees, extra peripheral coats and then interest carrying costs that are in larger part directly the result of Vision’s mishandling of a not good situation to start with as Michael has pointed out.
68 Bobbie Bees // Oct 14, 2011 at 4:39 pm
So…. If mayor Happy Planet is telling the trouble makers to stay out of town this weekend, does that mean he’s telling the penny stock brokers and bankers to stay out of town?
69 Michael Geller // Oct 14, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Max #40 Would it not be more feasible to rent out a portion of these units rather than hanging onto them – having them sit empty, prior to whenever they are put up for sale
No it wouldn’t Max, for a couple of reasons. The first is that if the units are rented out, this triggers an immediate 12% HST payment that would have to be paid by the city. On an $800,000 unit, this equates to an additional $96,000 which means even greater losses every month, and significant payouts by the city, at a time when it doesn’t have a lot of spare cash.
Furthermore, a ‘used’ unit, like a used car is worth less than a new unit, especially for Asian buyers who prefer buying new, whenever possible. Renters also damage units, which usually means repair/renovation costs when the units are eventually sold.
One interesting consideration is that the HST is tentatively scheduled to expire on March 31, 2013. After that date, the tax is reduced to 5%. While I haven’t done the calculations, the carrying costs on the unsold units over the next 18 months may well be less than 7%. For this reason, if one assumes no reduction in market values, it may be that some units, especially the more expensive ones, should be held off the market until after the date HST expires.
Of course, this is a gamble, and it may make more sense to sell them now at a discounted price.
I’m hoping the Receiver and City are looking at this and will be willing to share the numbers with me and other real estate professionals in the preparation of different profit and loss scenarios.
70 Glissando Remmy // Oct 14, 2011 at 9:17 pm
The Thought Of The Evening
“LMAO! ‘Occupy Vancouver’ tomorrow… at the Vancouver Art Gallery, downtown. Huh? All while Vancouver’s 99%ers … are sponsoring Olympic Village’s 1%ers. Now that… is a place that needs occupancy!”
Also.
The other day, God was playing backgammon with Lucifer, during one of their joint staff BBQ’s.
Sometimes they do that.
Staff perks.
Logistics.
Boredom.
Plus, they have the Purgatory sitting empty for most of the year, not that anyone is looking at the costs, a drop in a bucket as per one of the dark guy’s disciples, but it gives their staff some perspective…
God was ahead $115 Mill. when Lucifer stopped the game for a moment and said “Look God, let’s roll the dice for double or nothing one more time, and I’ll even throw my favourite team, the Vision Vancouver guys!”
The arrogance! “What could happen? I’m God! The God!” So they rolled…
…
Needles to say God lost.
We know that!
What bothers me though is that now, Lucifer got away with the loot and is also managing Vision. And that’s not good, not good at all.
I heard that tomorrow, at the Occupy Vancouver meeting, Gregor and Penny are going to sport signs with the words:
“We are the 99% of the 1%!”
Who knows, maybe no one will notice…
We live in Vancouver and this keeps us busy.
71 Bobbie Bees // Oct 15, 2011 at 9:58 pm
Glissando, you might want to ask the NPA why they think putting ashtrays out for smokers is such a great idea.
72 George // Oct 15, 2011 at 10:36 pm
Bobbie Bees @#71
so people have somewhere to put out their roaches, when they finish smoking a joint ..
73 Max // Oct 15, 2011 at 11:53 pm
@Michael Geller #69
Thank you.
Honestly, I could care less if ‘Asian buyers’ found used units of less value.
Local units should be made available and at an affordable cost to those that have paid taxes and supported this Province, first, before being sold to ‘Asian buyers’ for investment speculation. That is what is wrong with this city and why we face a housing affordability problem.
Personally, I am sick of real-estate developers building housing in this city and this province to suit ‘offshore owners’ before considering those that have supported this province and struggle to live here. It reeks of greed over need.
Developers need to get their heads screwed on straight and priorities set straight aside from putting huge cash wads in their pockets and screw the local hardworking people.
And yes Mr. Geller, I am an NPA supporter.
And as a white, English speaking first, woman, am now a minority in this city.
Yet politicians and developers trip over themselves to cater to all those that are not ‘me’ – either for votes, or money.
74 mezzanine // Oct 16, 2011 at 12:06 am
[crickets]
So how about those bike lanes? – i think they are great, and I would like to see more bike infrastructure and a bike-share program rolled out soon.
75 Richard // Oct 16, 2011 at 12:25 am
We occupy Vancouver and that keeps us occupied.
76 George // Oct 16, 2011 at 10:36 am
@ Rodger @ 76
Emperor stage: look out for the likes of George and his FG who appears, to me, to be a paid provocateur:
I strongly advise you to have proof of that comment Rodger… I am paid by no one, I have a right to an opinion .. Be very careful of allegations that you can’t prove..
I attended Council because I believed in the rights of the Falun Gong… The current Council and Mayor took it to heart as well after my mention. I notice that signs are posted for attendees not to put in stakes in the ground.
A shallow attempt as the rules are blatantly being broken. At present there are no permits for the event unfolding at the PUBLIC ART GALLERY..
The current movement is breaking every one of the conditions that were forced on the peaceful protesters of the Falun Gong who are standing in solidarity to draw attention to the crimes against humanity being committed by the trading partner we are being sold out to.
Your need to defend this protest to the point that you accuse me of being paid to protest an obvious injustice, makes you an complete hypocrite…. remember that, when you teach your grandsons about what we have done to our society and what you are leaving behind for them to deal with..
Our Mayor and Council should also be hanging their heads in shame right now…they force one set of rules on part of our society, but the greedy union types and lazy pot smoking activists are given the right to do as they please… Hypocrites!!
I have opinions Rodger and in this country I am allowed to speak them… with ideals like yours sir..I feel sorry for those grandsons of yours..
I am a member of no political party, but I am a compassionate contributing member of society..
77 Roger Kemble // Oct 16, 2011 at 11:16 am
George @ #77
I have but two comments in response:
1. Spell my name correctly . . .
2. Stop peeing on our shoes . . .
78 jesse // Oct 16, 2011 at 11:57 am
“Personally, I am sick of real-estate developers building housing in this city and this province to suit ‘offshore owners’ before considering those that have supported this province and struggle to live here.”
I think you’ll find “offshore owner” more nuanced than an X5-driving Chinese national.
That said, the City does need to have some heart-felt talks with itself about its real estate prices. Investors putting money into the Olympic Village are accepting yields that make property managers scratch their heads. Same goes for most properties in the City, actually. My complaint these days is the City seems unable to convince middle-class families to stay without taking on large amounts of debt and/or renting out part of their properties. After traveling around to other cities Vancouver is a bit of an odd duck, being unable to increase density in a way that matches all demographic backgrounds of the people who contribute to its economic growth.
Further, if the City is lamenting about affordability, it’s worth a gander who’s populating some of the purpose-built rentals these days; it’s not only those on the lower income tiers, but also those who could afford higher rents but choose not to. Meanwhile vast swaths of the City are low density, an odd situation considering how geographically challenged the city is. When you hear the keywords “neighbourhood-focused planning” I hope the electorate understands what that means for non-owners and “affordability” for all income tiers.
79 George // Oct 16, 2011 at 12:06 pm
to spell your name correctly would imply respect..I have none for you..
80 George // Oct 16, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Rodger @78… is this the way you educate your grandsons to have a civil disagreement…and we wonder why our society is a mess.. kids learn from the adults.. lovely I bet they are school yard bullies too?
81 spartikus // Oct 16, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Yeah Roger, you should look to George’s example on civility – find out where someone works and threaten their jobs.
82 George // Oct 16, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Sparty..You can’t have it both ways my friend…if you really are against the man…don’t take his dollars, or mine… the Falun Gong were innocent peaceful protesters not taking anything from anyone…such a very big difference..
83 spartikus // Oct 16, 2011 at 1:45 pm
I’m not talking Falun Gong (but if we are you apparently have a short memory)
I’m talking strictly about civility, and how monumentally hypocritcal it is of you to complain about being bullied and then in your next breathe attempt to bully someone else.
84 George // Oct 16, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Sorry Sparty I don’t agree with you …telling someone to piss in their shoes, is not civil at all ..
when provoked even a porcupine fights back… not the least bit hypocritical.. calling a spade a spade..
why not let Rodger and I work this out.. your interference can be seen as an attempt to bully me off this blog…if that isn’t your intention then I accept your apology..
85 Bill // Oct 16, 2011 at 4:06 pm
“find out where someone works and threaten their jobs.”
Get real, spartikus. When was the last time a union member lost their job because of their opinions?
86 Glissando Remmy // Oct 16, 2011 at 10:47 pm
The Thought of the Evening
“Everything ‘HUMANesque’ starts and ends with the search, the need and the grab for POWER. The history have shown us … a million times, that POWER is NEVER GIVEN AWAY at someone’s request. No. The POWER is grabbed by its balls , twisted and squeezed to tears, and never, ever, let go… without a fight!”
Roger #76,
You know I love and praise your comments, even when we disagree but…
I don’t think my Thought above is WRONG, if it is then… Mea Colpa!
I have this weird feeling, the feeling, that I’ve had many times before, that this new “upraising” is someone’s sick joke, for the simple purpose of raising the spirits and / or for throwing some ‘hope crumbs’ to the hopeless masses. To the 99%ers.
Let me explain.
One word.
Libya.
Because it’s current.
Oh, well. There’s the West, to be more exact, trying to grab power from Moammar instead of its own people, but it shows everyone how it is done.
Think of what would happen on the streets of New York if the people would really, really try to change things for real…
Unless #OccupyAnything Movement are willing to go to that type of occupying, anything else is just short of futile.
The super useless and gluttonous French royalty would have never given up their pampered life if it weren’t for Napoleon and his little best friend Guillotine.
The Red Russians did not ask Tsar Nikolai and his family to politely leave now, did they? Not that they would have left anyways, but still…
The Germans did not give up their Aryan race dream until after they were thrown out of Berlin.
The Japanese would have never gotten out of the Pacific if it weren’t for the two catastrophic nukes.
The Americans returned from Vietnam not because they listened to the thousands of US marching men, children and women, but because they were defeated.
The Million Man March did not stop the segregation in America.
The 2008 American financial collapse, a world wide ‘in your face embezzlement’ in fact, did not send AIG, Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan Chase… to the dungeons of history, federal prisons or death chambers, but instead, despite all the strong, popular opposition, they stole some more with Governmental approval, and party with it,… Suckers!
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his friends perpetrated probably the biggest Heist in the History of the human Race and got away with it!
When they are badly hurt, they shoot the horses don’t they? So was the banking industry, but the powers that be put a big band aid on them instead, and it went just fine!
Why didn’t Gaddafi resign his position of power, and privilege at the first signs of his own people being unhappy?
My point exactly!
…
At more minuscule scale, for the same reason, why Penny Ballem is not resigning her job at City Hall. For the same reason why Gregor Robertson despite his pitiful three years ‘pain in the arse’ performance is begging for another three years of the same.
Excuse me?
A real man would have said “Basta! Enough is enough.” Not him, not Vision Vancouver, not anybody in power, ever did or will do that peacefully in the future, unless they are thrown out by force, or in civilized countries like ours… by ‘popular vote’ LOL!
And BTW, while everyone is sleeping, the very people that are orchestrating these so called marches of hope, are pushing ‘sellebrity’ figures into the mainstream, with new added qualities… as the new leaders for the younger generation, the Generation Blah!
Zuckemberg was here, using his Balckberry and eating Japadogs, dressed like an average skateboarder and unkempt, ‘he’s one of you the 99%’ they say… ump, no, he’s from the 1% … silly!
Same as the Solomons and their Funds investors, same as the biking Gregor, the Ballems, the Aufochs… you know the rest of the Hollhockers, who under the false pretense of fighting for you, they are in fact withholding more for themselves.
One should read the fine print in their contracts if you don’t believe me.
#Occupy Vancouver is another event, on the same line with the former Red Tent city (oh, how it helped the homeless in this city, during their Olympic sit-in). All it achieved was that Robertson came up with a new name for ‘Homelessness’ calling it then ‘Street Homelessness’ and probably ‘Minus 20 Celsius Degrees Homelessness’ for this coming winter.
In New York the “Third Term’s The Charm” Mayor who got his way through a third term by changing the rules in his favour, is going to allow the ‘wall street’ to survive a few more weeks, until the ‘George Soros’ speculators are going to make their next billion dollars from this new racket, and then the NYPD bravest together with the NYFD finest are going to remove ALL the tents, barricades and demonstrators over one single night, water cannoning them to their underpants, even if the outside temperatures would be below the freezing point.
And those would be the lucky ones.
You can bet on it!
Revolutions can be faked, can be bought, and they can also be stolen. Check out ALL the velvet Eastern European movements of the late 1980s.
Check out Russia today! On the brink of giving PM Putin his third and most likely his forth mandate as President, putting him effectively in the modern Tsaar’s position.
I could simply never imagine the TD, Royal Bank, HSBC, Scotiabank’s … CEOs stepping out at the lectern saying ‘Ok, then … after much thought and consideration, and after following the #OccupyVancouver up close and personal, we’ve realized that we are ripping the little people off, so we sincerely want to give it all back… plus retroactive interest, yachts, mansions and all the $$$ in deposited in offshore accounts…”
There is reason why, nobody builds Bank Towers with easy opening windows anymore. Because, there is no need for a banker, broker, or high risk accountant to jump out the window in times of crisis anymore. That’s so passe! Today is so not 1930s!
Now, they would look from their towers, down at the tent cities occupying the streets all over, and would sip calmly from their hot brews, and… smile!
Because… as long as they don’t see any visible threat to their monetary empire there’s nothing but smoke and mirrors and Good Real TV.
Sorry, but until then…
We live in Vancouver and this keeps us busy.
87 boohoo // Oct 16, 2011 at 11:28 pm
“be very careful of allegations that you can’t prove”
LOL George you kill me!!!! That’s your go to move. That and calling anyone who disagrees with you a bully of course… but wow… that’s comedy gold!
88 Roger Kemble // Oct 17, 2011 at 3:01 am
Ummmmm, you make some pretty compelling points Gliss @ #87.
But I’m not talking Libya . . .
http://www.bobtuskin.com/2011/10/16/israel-and-libya-preparing-africa-for-the-“clash-of-civilizations”/
. . . I’m (the OCCUPIERS too) talking fractional reserve Ponzi>/B> and it looks like it’s gonna fall on its own sword so we’d better be there to pick up the pieces.
89 Michelle // Oct 17, 2011 at 10:30 am
WOW!
Glissando Remmy #87,
I have to second Roger Kemble on this one. Your post was quite a roller-coaster ride.
Yours was the most concise argument on the “occupy” movement I read so far, not only on personal blogs but in the whole sterile, as of late, MSM!
Roger #88 makes a very good point indeed… bob tuskin has something real going on!
90 F.H.Leghorn // Oct 17, 2011 at 5:39 pm
@ Bill #86: “When was the last time a union member lost their job because of their opinions?”
1984. See James Keegstra http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Keegstra
91 A Dave // Oct 18, 2011 at 1:22 am
Compelling points, yes, Glissy, but aren’t you ignoring a long history of non-violent resistance that has forced major changes — Jesus, Copernicus, Martin Luther, Ghandi, Martin Luther King, Mandela, Walesa, etc.?
Of course, when such “peaceful” movements gain enough traction, the state rarely cedes to any demands, and instead is the one to initiate the violence, rather than reform.
But violence is a last resort. It usually happens when those in power (and commentators like you) underestimate (or mock) the movement until it is too late to do anything other than turn on their own citizens. Then the spiral begins…
But, as Roger suggests, it will be political suicide for any government to bail out the banks again if (or when) the system unravels anew. So, maybe last year the bankers and traders and realtors were still feeling smug (like they got away with robbery), but those that continue to ignore or scoff at the street level #occupiers now — while the system continues to lurch from near disaster to near disaster — are doing so at their own peril IMHO.
92 IanS // Oct 18, 2011 at 2:07 pm
@A Dave #91,
We’re obviously way off topic, but what the heck. You write:
“Of course, when such “peaceful” movements gain enough traction, the state rarely cedes to any demands,”
Out of curiosity, what at the “demands” being made? Let’s say, for the sake of argument, the “Occupy” protests succeed in bringing the establishment to its knees and force capitulation. What would happen? What does the movement want to see happen?
93 spartikus // Oct 18, 2011 at 3:35 pm
As a data lover, you might find this interesting, Ian – an analysis of the concerns of the people in the images of the “We are the 99%” blog.
It’s my personal observation that OccupyWallStreet has quite a different flavour than the Canadian versions. For lack of a better word it’s more centrist down south…despite (or perhaps because of) things being a hell of a lot worse there.
94 IanS // Oct 18, 2011 at 4:27 pm
@spartikus #93,
That’s an interest link, thanks. However, I’m still left puzzled as to the identification of any cohesive message, other than (perhaps) “relieve me of my obligations and give me things”.
95 A Dave // Oct 18, 2011 at 6:11 pm
I agree, Ian. No one is nailing specific demands/reforms to the church door… yet.
What I would suggest is that, here in N. America at least, the movement is essentially serving notice, saying, the next move is still in the hands of the powerful and our governments, but another massive swindle like the corporate bailouts we’ve seen will not be tolerated, so tread carefully.
BTW, I find it pretty obnoxious for anyone to scoff at poor or unemployed or debt-ridden people and portray them as self-entitled whiners who say “relieve me of my obligations and give me things.” The reality is, that is exactly what these corporate CEOs said to our governments, to the tune of 50+ billion (here) and a trillion+ in the US. Why don’t you critics ever call these people and corporations self-entitled leeches on society?
BTW, some have said it’s not up to protesters to create demands and spell out reforms.
96 Michael Geller // Oct 18, 2011 at 8:37 pm
So I’m torn between discussing the issue at hand (Olympic Village Numbers, especially in light of Penny Ballem’s very effective but ellusive presentation to Council today), or Glissy’s assessment of the state of the universe.
So I’ll leave them both alone, other than to put forward a proposition.
I don’t know about you, but there’s no one I would like to meet in person more than Glissando Remy. I would even pay money to meet him, to be donated to an election candidate of his choice!
So here’s my thought for the evening. Glissy, come out of your shadows…let’s have an event at which we can meet you…with an appropriate minimum donation (say twice the last two digits of the year of your birth)or whatever is appropriate, with it all going to your favourite candidate, whoever it might be.
Maybe we can tie it into an election debate,(preferably moderated by Fabula), if such an event is planned between Mr. GQ and Ms. Anton…or another appropriate event.
What do you think Fabula readers?
97 IanS // Oct 19, 2011 at 7:41 am
@A Dave #95:
You write:
“What I would suggest is that, here in N. America at least, the movement is essentially serving notice, saying, the next move is still in the hands of the powerful and our governments, but another massive swindle like the corporate bailouts we’ve seen will not be tolerated, so tread carefully. ”
Or what?
“BTW, I find it pretty obnoxious for anyone to scoff at poor or unemployed or debt-ridden people and portray them as self-entitled whiners who say “relieve me of my obligations and give me things.”
*shrug* That was what I got from the web page to which I was referred, more or less. And that’s the impression I get when I see people protesting being obliged to pay back their student loans (ie. money they chose to borrow).
FWIW, I certainly don’t think that all of the protesters fall into that category, though I’m sure many do. And, as indicated in my original post, I stand to be corrected. And I remain curious as to what the protesters want.
“The reality is, that is exactly what these corporate CEOs said to our governments, to the tune of 50+ billion (here) and a trillion+ in the US. Why don’t you critics ever call these people and corporations self-entitled leeches on society?”
I’m sure many of them are as you describe, though many aren’t.
But holding the latter opinion (as to the nature of some CEO’s etc) is not inconsistent with the former (as to the nature of some of the protesters), is it?
“BTW, some have said it’s not up to protesters to create demands and spell out reforms.”
And some might be right. But, in the absence of a demand which might be met, or at least some general goals, you make it sound more like a collective tantrum than a protest movement.
98 spartikus // Oct 19, 2011 at 8:10 am
“relieve me of my obligations and give me things”.
You of course mean things like a trillion dollar bailout to relieve you of the obligations of the bad loans you made.
(In Canada it was only $186 billion).
99 Chris Keam // Oct 19, 2011 at 8:21 am
“in the absence of a demand which might be met, or at least some general goals, you make it sound more like a collective tantrum than a protest movement.”
No, a collective tantrum happened last June when our area’s sporting team failed to be superior to the other area’s sporting team. What we have here is a collection of individuals coming together to question the path we’re on. Always a good exercise.
I think it’s expecting a lot more than any organization could achieve to suggest an ad hoc movement that’s about a month old should already be issuing a detailed list of solutions. Part of the reason for that is the process by which the Occupy movement communicates. The People’s microphone and other innovations are designed to convey clarity and allow for consensus. It ain’t built for speed. Unlike many corporations, this movement appears to be as concerned about process as outcomes. That’s a good thing IMO. If it takes a little while longer to hear everybody’s take on things, then so be it.
In terms of a democratic expression of ideas and potential solutions, at this point Team Occupy seems to be at least as capable as Parliament’s Question Period at engaging the public and talking about big ideas… without the childish shouting and power grabs typical of the current political landscape, at no doubt a fraction of the cost.
I went by the VAG on Sunday and was impressed by the level of organization, the amount of thought that has gone into facilitating discussions, and the diversity of the Occupiers.
Side note: Riding home from downtown last night, through the pre-game Canuck crowd, the smell of pot was unmistakable and prevalent. It was non-existent for the 15 minutes or so I was at the Occupy Vancouver encampment.
If you haven’t visited the site, I highly recommend checking out the north east corner where there are a number of bulletin boards explaining how they handle group discussions. An interesting approach.
100 IanS // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:03 am
@Spartikus #98,
So you’re point is that the “Occupy” protesters are no different than the financial entities which received the recent financial bailout?
OK, I guess a case can be made for that, sure.
101 IanS // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:11 am
@Chris Keam #99,
“No, a collective tantrum happened last June when our area’s sporting team failed to be superior to the other area’s sporting team.”
Good point.
“I think it’s expecting a lot more than any organization could achieve to suggest an ad hoc movement that’s about a month old should already be issuing a detailed list of solutions.”
I agree with that. I’d be interested in seeing a list of demands, though. Or wishes. Or goals.
“In terms of a democratic expression of ideas and potential solutions, at this point Team Occupy seems to be at least as capable as Parliament’s Question Period at engaging the public and talking about big ideas”
Talk about damning with faint praise.
“I went by the VAG on Sunday and was impressed by the level of organization, the amount of thought that has gone into facilitating discussions, and the diversity of the Occupiers.”
I would certainly agree that a lot of effort has gone into organization. Given the unfocussed nature of the exercise, though, I do think it’s a shame that the same level of organizational effort didn’t go into something that’s more likely to achieve anything.
“Side note: Riding home from downtown last night, through the pre-game Canuck crowd, the smell of pot was unmistakable and prevalent. It was non-existent for the 15 minutes or so I was at the Occupy Vancouver encampment.”
This seems to be a bit of a non sequiter. Not sure what your point is here. I didn’t suggest the “Occupy” protesters were pot heads and, if it turns out that one of their goals is the legalization of pot, then I’d be in total agreement.
“If you haven’t visited the site, I highly recommend checking out the north east corner where there are a number of bulletin boards explaining how they handle group discussions. An interesting approach.”
I’ve been reading about the group discussion approach in the papers and on the rabble.ca forum. I can’t help but be reminded of the scene from “Life of Brian” where the revolutionaries are debating what to call themselves.
102 IanS // Oct 19, 2011 at 9:27 am
@Spartikus #98,
“You of course mean things like a trillion dollar bailout to relieve you of the obligations of the bad loans you made.”
I didn’t make any loans, bad or otherwise.
(OK, full disclosure, I did loan some money to my sister a few years ago and she didn’t pay me back.)
Not sure if that was a typo on your part or simply a spurious ad hominem statement.
103 Peter // Oct 19, 2011 at 10:05 am
It is my understanding that the 427 units that have already been sold generatd $57 million for the city. That is an average price per unit of $133,500. There are 284 units left which, once sold, will generate another $40 million more for the city.
I also understand that today the total debt left outstanding for the Olympic village amounts to some $704 million.
Hence, once the Olympic village is sold the City of Vancouver ends up with a residual debt of some $664 millions.
If my numbers are correct – who will pay for this debt? Gregor Robertson out of his pension?
104 Michelle // Oct 19, 2011 at 11:14 am
Ha
!
Michael Geller #96,
I’m with you on this 100%!
Been trying to approach Glissando for some time but to no avail, he is such a mysterious character. He/ she would have made a great politician IMO. And boy aren’t we in need of one considering the stock we have to work with?
You would have made a great candidate for Council/ Mayor, Michael! Too bad, the voters chose to vote for Gregor’s bling and glitz in 2008, instead of competence, ideas, integrity, non partisan… aka what we need!
To conclude… common Glissy!
105 Frank Ducote // Oct 19, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Michael – I might agree with you about encourcouraging him/her to come out of the shadows, if for no other reason than I like to know who is talking, especially so frequently, at such length and so imaginatively. I don’t think many people could afford your suggested attendance fee, however, so maybe a voluntary donation is all that’s needed.
Maybe Roger could join Glissando on stage for a real barnburner of an evening!
106 Chris Keam // Oct 19, 2011 at 8:33 pm
@Ian
“This seems to be a bit of a non sequiter. Not sure what your point is here. I didn’t suggest the “Occupy” protesters were pot heads”
That part of my comment was in response to post #76
107 Glissando Remmy // Oct 19, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Michael #97…
Thanks for your kind words, but I am not looking forward to a public debate anytime soon, too complicated, I like it the way it is… for now at least!
Michelle #105 Frank #106
After reading your comments, I almost called my FBI connection to let them know I want them to bring me in… naah!
Thanks again and please accept my GR-eetings!
108 Chris Keam // Oct 20, 2011 at 8:24 am
“I like it the way it is”
Well of course you do GR. It’s nearlly impossible to hold you accountable for your agit-prop.
109 Glissando Remmy // Oct 20, 2011 at 11:27 am
Oh, Chris #109
I see a Ballad for the Copenhagen Biker coming…
I can’t get past the title though, and I’m in a hurry, help me out, pedal with me…
GR-eetings!
110 Chris Keam // Oct 20, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Remember when you were funny GR? The good old days when you hadn’t Dennis Miller’ed? I miss those days.
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