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Olympic village by the numbers: $466 M still owing; 304 condos left to sell; more

October 18th, 2011 · 41 Comments

City manager Penny Ballem gave an update on the Olympic village numbers today, which was sort of helpful but still didn’t answer some of my questions. However, here’s her slide show, to get us started.

As many of you know, development consultant Michael Geller and I have been having a back and forth about this whole issue, as he says the city is going to lose a lot of money that it didn’t need to because it has insisted on hanging on to the 252 city-rental units, to the 119 other rental units that were always planned to be market rentals, and by pushing the developer into receivership, taking over the whole loan and sales program in the process. (I think I have that right.)

I’ve asked him to set out the numbers for the two scenarios, so that we, the taxpayers, can see the difference in losses between the two.

Michael’s tweets today say that he believes going his route (sell everything off right away) would have saved the city $100 million. Since he calculates the losses under the current direction to be $270-$320 million (including the foregone profit on the land? I can’t tell), that means his way would mean the city would only lose $170 to $220 million. I think. He also said at another point that his method would generate enough income to pay off all $446 million of the loan plus get back some of the $170 million that the city was supposed to get for the land but never did. Anyway, we’re still working on this.

The critical numbers needed, however, are this. Numbers people should feel free to weigh in. Let’s have a real math nerd-out here.

1. What could the 119 market units and 252 city units have been sold for?

2. What is the city getting in rent from those units over the life of the building?

3. What is the net revenue from that, less maintenance, management and holding costs?

4. What are the 304 remaining condo units likely to be sold for?

5. What are the rents on the commercial spaces likely to be for the life of the building, less the maintenance, management and holding costs?

6. What are the costs of repairing deficiencies etc that aren’t covered by the Maleks’ or their contractors’ insurance programs, which need to be factored in.

7. What kind of impact would it have on the sales prices of all the units in the village — the 500 original for-sale condos; the 119 market units; and the 252 city units — if all of those had been put on the market at once? Could you really have sold them for the same kind of price as units that are pre-sold before the developer has had to start carrying costs? Would there have had to be a discount? Would you have had to carry them over a period of one or two years before you could sell them all? If so, what would be the holding costs on that?

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