And I apologize for sounding frivolous about this issue, Urbanismo, I know it is serious business. One question I do have is pretty basic and the developer crowd should be able to answer fairly easily: did labour and material costs jump by over 100% in 2 years? It seems to me if people are going to justify massive over-runs on that scale, you better be able to tie it to some hard data that is at least relatively close to the actual rise in inflation. I have yet to see anyone demonstrate clearly that the monstrous over-runs at the OV, the Convention Centre and the Canada Line were even in the ballpark of real inflation.

And now all that FRIVOLOUS debt is being offloaded by the Liberals onto charities, non-profits, school PACs, people waiting for surgery, stalled housing projects, programs for deformed children, etc. etc., all for a two week party? That’s the trickle down? That’s the Olympic legacy? The glass may look half full for rich folks, who seem to be the last remaining boosters. But for anyone poor or in a low tax bracket, or working in the cultural or social sectors who are now being asked to pay the brunt of this ultra-expensive party, it has become a bloody sickening exercise in financial mismanagement and dehumanizing governance. No wonder the Libs and VANOC refuse to be transparent.

The only economic spin-off I can see resulting from the Olympics is that real estate prices will likely re-inflate, making the cost of living in Vancouver even less affordable than it already has become.

Had the NPA council in June 07 decided to do what the VV council did in December 08, which was to seek a new financing agreement involving a consortium of Canadian banks – and much lower interest rates – we could have avoided many of the problems of the past year.

But I guess it’s just easier to say that everything just ‘happened’.

To Norman who asked whether Millennium had a record of delivering on promises or not? How many earlier development agreements resulted in lawsuits?

Millennium was the successful bidder on two city sites that I know of, and followed through on promises, most recently and notably L’Hermitage. They also purchased a site from me at SFU and followed through with a very beautiful development. Frances wrote a profile of them in Vancouver Magazine, and did reference challenges and lawsuits, but to be fair, lawsuits are not uncommon in the development and construction business.

To Gassy Jack’s Ghost who wrote: “Hmmn, Millennium bullied West Van council into a project very few of their neighbours wanted, clearcut part of a hillside on an uber-busy traffic corridor, erected a sales building with Arthur Erikson’s name plastered all over it, then promptly stopped work, leaving an unsightly blight on the landscape. People in West Van are outraged about this project!”

Owners of single family properties are often outraged when new forms of development are proposed in their neighbourhoods. My point was that this was a very substantial land assembly and development project. Yes, it stalled, for reasons we can all understand. But it is now underway and could be a significant asset if the city should ever have to make a claim against the company’s guarantees. I also think it will provide a much needed housing choice in West Van…now did the developer bully the Council? I wasn’t there but maybe someone else will want to respond.

To Jesse who wrote: “Saying they (the city) were speculating is, in my mind, completely accurate.”

The city did not issue the loan guarantee and advance funds because they were speculating in the sense of hoping to sell the condominiums for more money. They did this TO KEEP THE PROJECT GOING. Otherwise, it would not have been finished in time for the Olympics. Yes, one might say they were speculating that the project would get finished and they would get their money back. But to reduce the risk, I am told they did seek additional security from the developer.

And to the always fascinating (albeit sometimes confusing) Urbanismo, yes you are right, Fairmont Estates was sold some time ago; however, as we are all reading in the papers, in the last 6 months the market has recovered surprisingly well and is approaching or reaching previous highs.

“The market is different today and circumstance augers ill of the future . . . ”

While I’m not sure I fully understand this, the high end market is not significantly different. As proof, I would note that very few people walked away from sales in Shangri-la and Woodwards. Similarly, many other projects around the region are closing sales from two years ago. I do agree the market is very different than it was at the end of last year.

To conclude, I am the first to admit my post was a ‘half-full’ rather than ‘half-empty” response. However, I was reacting to those who thought the city (Council and staff) had acted improperly from day one and grossly mis-managed the file. I don’t think this is the case. Yes, there were many things myself and others might have done differently. But as Frances and others have pointed out since I posted my comments, the project is starting to look pretty good and it will also be a special community.

Whether all the units can sell at sufficient prices to cover all the very hight costs. I won’t bet on it. But as I said, it’s not out of the question.

. . . and oh just one more point . . . since the heady day for Fairmont @ C$1,500 it must expect at least some defaults . . . hopefully not too many . . .

Sorry to be casandra on these beautilful fall days . . . frivolous fries anyone?

” . . . let’s not forget that the Fairmont condominiums that are just being completed were sold at an average price in excess of $1500 a square foot…and in my opinion, many of the condominiums in the Olympic Village are better than many of the condominiums in this building. So even if the costs end up at $1100 a square foot . . . ”

However . . .

In my limited experience financing of such projects is not granted until the project has a capital pre-subscription of some percentage of the total expected loan . . . in the order of upwards to 75%.

In this order, therefore, successful marketing of Fairmont must have concluded at least two years ago, maybe more: well before approvals, contract documents construction etc., during the heady time of C$1,500/ft!

The market is different today and circumstance augers ill of the future . . .

Accordingly, to me, MG’s optimism rings more of the ubiquitous burnt umber proboscis than good judgment.

And despite blue sweaters and upper crust politicos deigning to kick a ball around with the hoi polio we must curb our “irrational exuberance” lest we are disappointed.

I also think that the current and future Vancouver administrations will be wiser from this experience.

Miro Cernetig’s Sun article by comparison was over the top and I suspect that’s because he failed to adequately consult all the important parties. Further, he seems to lowering his standard to basic blaming, rather than providing a neutral analysis of the project history and outlining its logical conclusions.

Needless to say, I am not impressed!

But there is much more to consider, than OV sales, when I read Michael Geller’s very up-beat prognosis: indeed he is not alone. Notwithstanding this Fries flippancy, if I did not know MG to be a very decent well meaning fellow I would be inclined to suspect his integrity.

Of significant importance for our immediate future . . .

Our major trading partner to the south is in serious trouble:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbUIlH0stSc&feature=player_embedded#

Canada will not escape unscathed . . . and affecting the world’s, and implicitly, Canada’s economic well being.

I would feel much more comfortable for my young family’s future if the political community, particularly the local political community would take our situation more seriously.

Ovulating over our, once very unpopular Prime Minister, because he sings with “What Would You do . . . “,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOt2Qp0H9G8 . . . with YoYo Ma

just doesn’t cut it . . . Huh, I know what I would do . . .

Well that’s effectively what happened. I agree that saying the mindset of the decision makers were the same as “flippers” is likely not accurate. Saying they were speculating is, in my mind, completely accurate. Whether or not greed played a role is not necessary to make poor initial assumptions. They ran the risk of becoming “reluctant flippers” from day one.

Hmmn, Millennium bullied West Van council into a project very few of their neighbours wanted, clearcut part of a hillside on an uber-busy traffic corridor, erected a sales building with Arthur Erikson’s name plastered all over it, then promptly stopped work, leaving an unsightly blight on the landscape. People in West Van are outraged about this project!

In the spirit of Hoarse Whisperer, I am willing to offer a triple-O and a shake to the person who can answer this bit of trivia that may or may not have anything to do with the bidding process for the OV:

What man served as both the President of the NPA and the President of Millenium’s parent company in the years just prior to the award of the Olympic Village contract to Millennium?