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Battle for Vancouver council shows a tight fight between Vision, Greens at bottom of list

October 31st, 2014 · 10 Comments

Yes, I know, polls. But they remain, as imperfect as they inevitably are, a good way for us to understand what is going on with campaigns beyond the spin and headlines.

This Justason poll, which I wrote about here, is the first attempt to get online panelists to look at something resembling a ballot to make their 10 choices for council, so it’s more accurate than just asking people whether they will support COPE or Greens or Vision or NPA.

It doesn’t account, of course, for variables like — who will actually get their voters out to the polls in the real world. But, still, thought-provoking.

Here is the Justason release on the council candidates and also her earlier poll on the mayoral race.

This poll was done between Oct. 12 and 18, so any pollster or civic reporter would expect these numbers to be changing significantly in the next few weeks.

But it’s hard to see the numbers changing a lot for the new NPA candidates for council, who all fell well below the 10th-place mark for council. They are getting no push from the party in any of the advertising, which is entirely focused on mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe and the party name. They are out at community meetings in force, but speaking, as far as I can tell, to people who have already made up their minds. And, although they appear at NPA news conferences, they rarely get to speak and sometimes don’t even get introduced by name.

That’s in sharp contrast to the way Vision has been pushing new candidate Niki Sharma, who is front and centre in news conferences with the mayor, on stage at the fundraisers, and frequently mentioned in news releases.


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