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More political geekfest number-crunching of the Vancouver election shows Aquino would have been elected by NE, Yuen and Wong by SE

November 22nd, 2011 · 47 Comments

A reader — “Rick” — sent me this breakdown, which I like because it gives a sense of how councillors ranked in different parts of the city. It seems to show that the NE votes straight Vision/COPE slate, the SW votes straight NPA slate, and it’s the other three quadrants of the city that mix things up.

Ok, I’m a geek.  But I’ve wondered about that whole E/W and N of 16/S of 16 divide for a while and wanted to see what the poll results said about what kind of council 5 areas of the city would elect.

My 5 were: the Downtown pen (West End, Coal Harbour, Yaletown) NE of Main & 16 (Strathcona, DTES, Granview, etc) NW of Main & 16 (Kits, Pt Grey, Fairview, etc), SW of Main & 16 (Kerrisdale, Shaughnessay, Dunbar, etc) and SE of Main and 16 (Sunset, Langara, Collingwood, etc)

If DT elected 10 councillors they would be:
DEAL, Heather
REIMER, Andrea
STEVENSON, Tim
LOUIE, Raymond P
JANG, Kerry
CARR, Adriane
MEGGS, Geoff
TANG, Tony
WOODSWORTH, Ellen
AFFLECK, George
(7 VV, 1 GRN, 1 CPE, 1 NPA)

If NE elected 10 councilors:
REIMER, Andrea
DEAL, Heather
LOUIE, Raymond P
JANG, Kerry
STEVENSON, Tim
MEGGS, Geoff
WOODSWORTH, Ellen
TANG, Tony
LOUIS, Tim
AQUINO, RJ
(7 VV, 3 CPE)

If NW elected 10 councillors:
REIMER, Andrea
DEAL, Heather
LOUIE, Raymond P
JANG, Kerry
MEGGS, Geoff
STEVENSON, Tim
CARR, Adriane
TANG, Tony
WOODSWORTH, Ellen
LOUIS, Tim
(7 VV, 1 GRN, 2 CPE)

If SW elected 10 councilors:
BALL, Elizabeth
AFFLECK, George
CHARKO, Ken
YUEN, Bill
KLASSEN, Mike
MCCREERY, Bill
WONG, Francis
BICKERTON, Sean
CARANGI, Joe
LAMARCHE, Jason
(10 NPA)

If SE elected 10 councilors:
LOUIE, Raymond P
JANG, Kerry
YUEN, Bill
TANG, Tony
DEAL, Heather
REIMER, Andrea
WONG, Francis
BALL, Elizabeth
STEVENSON, Tim
AFFLECK, George
(6 VV, 4 NPA of and the other 4 areas of the city had similar populations ~70-80,000 but the SE is much more populous at 120,000)

I also did a little thing on party strength in each area.  I took the total vote for a party’s candidates/number of bubbles filled in:
DT:
VV 35.7%, NPA 34.3%, CPE 10.7%, GRN 5%
NE:
VV 41.5%, NPA 23%, CPE 15.2%, GRN 4.3%
NW:
VV 38.8%, NPA 31.9%, CPE 11.4%, GRN 5.1%
SW:
NPA 53.1%, VV 25.6%, CPE 7.3%, GRN 3.5%
SE:
NPA 39.9%, VV 33.2%, CPE 10.9%, GRN 3.0%

My little conclusions:
-the SW of the city is the part least like the rest, and home to the most NPA slate voters
-the NE is where COPE benefited from partnership with VV
-the SE is where having a Chinese surname is most important

My little geekfest was challenged by:
-some polls span 16th
-the city does not number its polls with these 5 areas in mind so it is a bit of a cut and paste challenge so I may have missed some polls or counted them twice but if you’d like to have a look at my spreadsheets drop me a line!

Rick

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