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The Bula election lawn-sign count: It’s not 2011 any more — but a surprise along Point Grey Rd

November 8th, 2014 · 4 Comments

As some of you may remember, I spent a day driving around Vancouver just before the 2011 election to do a lawn-sign count because I wanted to get some read, beyond polls and spin, of the public mood.

There have been studies indicating that lawn signs are an indication of public engagement and sentiment, so I haven’t completely gone off my rocker.

Last time, I counted 224 signs: 119 for Vision/COPE, then joined, 90 for the NPA, and 10 for “other” as I drove a big rectangle around Vancouver.

That was not too far off the final vote split (Vision, 59 per cent; NPA, 41 per cent). My route was: Rupert 1st to 63rd; along 54th/57th to Ontario; along 49th and SW Marine to Dunbar, down Dunbar to 10th, across 10th/12th to Burrard, across 16th Burrard to Main; across 12th from Main back to Rupert.

I drove exactly the same route this time and found fewer signs (only 186, compared to the previous 224) and a big difference in the split. Looks like, in my completely unscientific read, that voter turnout will be down and the race is extremely close. (For fun, I also drove every block around the closed off Point Grey bike route — see at the bottom for results)

This time:

Vision: 76

NPA: 71

Other: 37. That included 22 for Ken Denike and Sophia Woo, 7 for Vancouver First, 7 for COPE, 2 for Public Education Project, 2 for RJ Aquino/OneCity, 2 for Cedar Party and 2 for someone named Mercedes Wong.

Here’s the comparison of how the four sides of the rectangle broke down last time and this time:


2011: 55 Vision; 11 COPE; 3 Vision and COPE together; 21 NPA

2014: 14 Vision; 7 NPA; 1 COPE; 2 Mercedes Wong

54/57/49/SW Marine:

2011: 39 NPA; 23 Vision; 3 COPE; 2 NSV; 5 Dharni

2014: 30 NPA; 30 Vision; 16 Ken Denike/Sophia Woo; 7 Vancouver First; 2 COPE, 1 Green


2011: 12 NPA; 4 Vision; 3 COPE; 1 NSV

2014: 9 NPA; 0 Vision; 2 COPE; 1 Cedar; 1 Green


2011: 32 Vision; 4 COPE; 7 Vision and COPE together; 18 NPA

2014: 31 Vision; 23 NPA; 1 Green; 1 PEP; 3 COPE; 1 OneCity/RJ Aquino

Besides my former route, I also explored a few other areas, to get a feel for them.

Among them: East Van, Nanaimo 1st-Hastings, Renfrew, Hastings – 1st, 1st, Renfrew to Rupert

22 NPA; 14 Vision; 3 COPE; 2 Denike/Woo; 2 Mercedes Wong; 1 PEP

Also: 10th, from Alma to Blanca, Blanca to 16th, 16th from Blanca to Arbutus

18 NPA; 11 Vision; 4 COPE; 3 Cedar; 3 Denike/Wood; 1 Green

And, finally, because I couldn’t resist, I drove every street between MacDonald and Alma, Point Grey Road and Fourth, the so-called gated community created by the new bike route. Lots of people out jogging and biking on such a beautiful fall day. And apparently someone likes the bike lane there because the count was:

23 Vision — none on the big houses on the north side of Point Grey Road. Instead, a big cluster right at PGR and Alma and then others sprinkled through

8 NPA (and I’m counting one side just east of the road closure); 3 Green; 2 COPE; 1 OneCity/RJ Aquino

Tried to go through what is called Red Square, around Commercial Drive, but ran out of time. It did seem, though, that it was mostly Vision signs, with a sprinkling of Green, COPE, and OneCity. I did see one fellow tending to his giant NPA/Kirk LaPointe sign on Venables, along with a smaller Green sign. Wondered if that could possibly be Jak King’s house.






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